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some statistics about transfers at Bayview
There are 10,000 trips/day which regularly use the O-Train right now.
Of those, we are told by OC-Transpo that 70% of them transfer to
buses right now.
(We know this, because in calculating the cost/hour of the O-Train, OC-Transpo says that since so many transfer, the cost of providing those buses that they transfer to must be a cost associated with the O-Train. This is a specious argument, but it does provide a reliable value of 70%)
Observation and analysis by our researchers show that of those transfering at Bayview from the Train (both morning and evening), that 60% of them go west, not east.
So, 10000 people * 70% * 60% = 4200 people will not benefit from a transfer-free trip downtown, because they are NOT going downtown.
(well, not "people", but "trips")
In addition, there are 30% of O-Train trips do not transfer
at all, so 3000 trips. They are taking the O-Train short distances, may be
park'n'ride users, or kiss-n-ride, or are walk-in traffic. These current
users also do not benefit from a transfer-free trip.
So, 7200 (72%) trips which currently use the O-Train would not
benefit from a transfer-free trip to downtown. 2800 people will benefit,
but the O-Train is already such a faster/better route for them, that they
are *WILLING* to transfer.
So, how many additional passengers will ride a transfer-free trip to downtown
from Leitrim/Earl Armstrong to downtown? Remember that the numbers who
would take it from Barrhaven were very low in the Discarded plan, because
of the extremely long trip times. One would presume that shorter trips from
Barrhaven would be more popular.
I.e. if I'm going to Carleton U or Canada Post/Confederation rather than downtown, the trip is shorter, and I might be more willing to take the train than the otherwise faster express bus, because the express bus doesn't take me where I want to go. But, those shorter trips, btw, also don't require transfer-free trips beyond Bayview.
(From Barrhaven, however, it would be faster to take an express bus to bayview and transfer to the train southbound than it would be to take the discard plan train directly from Barrhaven)
How many cars removed from Bronson Avenue are represented by the people
who would be willing to take a transfer-free trip from Earl Armstrong Rd
to downtown, but who would be unwilling to take a trip that required a transfer at Bayview. Tell me where the study is.
How about this compromise: we build all of the proposed extensions first,
and look at electification (and thus a possible transfer-free ride) later on.
That represents 1200 riders/hour from each of Barrhaven, and (to and from) Kanata North. We might be able to remove as many as 1000 cars/hour from the 417/174 from Cyrville to Kanata.
Statistics can say anything
It all makes sense what has been said about transfers and west vs east travel at Bayview given the current configuration of the O-Train. It reflects the market that uses the O-Train, not necessarily our objections in providing transit. Nevertheless, statistics can be made to prove any point.
First of all, the O-Train does not serve a large walk on market. It does not travel through residential areas for the most part. As a result, most people need to transfer to make use of it. It works because it saves time for people traveling to Carleton University and to Tunney's Pasture and a few other places. If north-south LRT travelled through communities instead of around them, I expect transfer statistics would fall significantly. This was the intent of the original N-S LRT route. Go through communities not around them.
The east vs west transfer stats at Bayview prove that it is a big failure for getting people to downtown. This is quite predictable given the fact that the O-Train is not competitive with the South-east Transitway. Why would people transfer to an O-Train at Greenboro and then transfer again at Bayview to get downtown, when a direct bus to downtown already exists? People will accept transfers when it is the only choice and when the transfer will actually save them time. If there is a choice of not transferring, they will choose not to transfer even if the trip time is slightly longer.
Transfers are not popular for good reasons. Sure, you can time transfers between trains but it is much more difficult with buses because of traffic conditions, accidents and weather. Service frequency is also a factor in whether transfers work well. Since most transfers will continue to involve a bus, I believe that transfers will continue to be unpopular with the public. It takes only a few bad experiences with transfers to drive people away from transit.
Here lies the question. Why would we extend the O-Train to the south if it has already been a proven failure for delivering people downtown, the most important destination on our transit network?
Effective service to downtown is the primary objective of most LRT supporters. If we want to get people out of their cars in the emerging communities of Findlay Creek and Riverside South, and the ones we need out of their cars the most are the ones travelling downtown where the congestion is the worst, we need to provide a direct link. It is great that Carleton University is so well served by the O-Train and is very popular with students and workers there, but the downtown market is still much, much bigger. If we fail to effectively deliver people there, how can any plan be considered a success?
This is my bottom line. LRT must travel from at least Leitrim Rd. to downtown without a transfer. Anything less is not worth spending a penny on. Furthermore, an Airport connection that does not provide direct service to downtown hotels is a total waste of money. How many out of town visitors will use a train from the airport in a strange city that requires a transfer to reach downtown? VERY FEW!!!!!!
GC makes some good points
First let me say to GC that I agree with you on several points. for example I agree that the E-W transfer split at Bayview is more a function of position of the track then of anything else. i.e. people don't use it to go down town because it does not service downtown effectively, for many people.
But remember the I believe the reason the O-train is where it is was not because it was a good location for downtown. It is there because it was cheap to implement, and in that respect it has been a success servicing as a downtown bypass for people coming from the south and going to the west, and servicing Carlton U, all at effective price for the city.
So to answer your question about extending the O-Train to the south and not downtown. I could see an argument about servicing Carlton U and the West end from Findlay Creek and Riverside South.
This may or may not be effective but I am not sure. Also, looking at the friends plan as a whole I believe downtown service would improve somewhat given the frequency of the downtown train, and the option of getting at it from the east or west.
As to your bottom line, perhaps I could offer a less harsh version of what you are saying.
"Southern communities will not be effectively serviced buy O-Train extension to the south if the O-Train service does not also go downtown."
This may be true, and maybe one more effective way to spend these dollars is to leave the O-Train as is and focus more money on the Kanata extension.
You also make a good point about the Airport extension but lets remember that many major cities have poor public transit access to the airport, many of these cities leave major service of the Airport to Taxi, and Airporters. Perhaps this is the model we need to look at.
I honestly, don't have answers, but I encourage all participants in this debate to look at all the problem from as many angles as possible, and try to keep an open mind to all ideas.
Kanata service
I favour completing the missing links in the Western Transitway all the way to Scotiabank Place as among my top priorities and hopefully using the parking lot there as a Park and Ride lot.
Some MORE statistics about transfers at Bayview
Actually, the situation is far WORSE for those
who claim that there MUST be a no-transfer
trip by O-Train through Bayview to downtown.
My observations of what happens at Bayview show that about 30 people get off a train there, on average, each trip. At some times
of the day, it's a lot more (late afternoon peak), at other times less.
And, yes, about 20 of those 30 head for westbound buses on the Transitway
Of the other 10, about 8 head for eastbound
buses for downtown, or to Gatineau.
The remaining 2 head for westbound #16 or #18 buses, or walk to the surrounding
neighbourhoods.
These numbers are AVERAGES, determined by many hours of watching what happens at
Bayview over the last five years.
They can vary a good deal from trip to trip, and day to day.
So, about eight (8) people per trip head east,
towards downtown.
Times 72 trips per day equals 576 O-Train riders per day headed towards downtown.
Times two, because these riders will probably
make a round trip, equals 1,152 O-Train riders per day coming from or going downtown.
Let's round that up to 1,200, and divide by the
average daily ridership of 10,000.
Only 12% of daily O-Train riders are going to
or coming from downtown.
THe IBI ridership forecast for the City's discarded LRT plan shows that Carleton University would remain the biggest single
destination on the line, even with the
extension to downtown.