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O-train cancellation savings "DUBIOUS"
OC Transpo expects $4.7M revenue shortfall
By Neco Cockburn, The Ottawa Citizen August 24, 2010 9:24 PM
OTTAWA -- Higher fares, mild weather and lower gas prices have some OC Transpo riders defecting, says a report by city staff. The result is a projected $4.7-million revenue shortfall for this year.
OC Transpo saw record ridership in December, when 8.4 million passengers were recorded. But ridership fell below budgeted levels after fares went up 7.5 per cent in March, says a staff report that's to go to city council's transit committee on Monday.
This year's final ridership levels are expected to be down 3.1 per cent from budgeted levels, according to the report. Ridership in the second quarter of the year -- 22.7 million passenger trips -- was 6.7 per cent lower than budgeted levels, it says.
And as more people looked for ways to "lower their costs through discounted fares," presumably by buying bus passes, the average amount paid for a fare dropped, the report says.
....
The recent five-week maintenance shutdown of the O-Train is one of the reasons for another expected $326,000 in savings, the report says. Deficits are expected in the transit service operator and fuel budget, however.
Comments
A possible incorrect impression that needs review
From: Klaus Beltzner
To: Mercier, Alain , Cullen, Alex
Good afternoon Mr. Mercier and Chair Cullen,
I am writing to ask you to review the article in the Ottawa Citizen in the context of the Staff report to be presented at the next Transit Committee Meeting on 30 September and provide a public clarification as required.
Specifically, I am concerned about a possible false impression regarding the operating costs of the O-Train. The Staff report identifies a "saving" of $326k on the operating costs of the O-Train "due to diesel price savings and
the 5 week shutdown" (1). The newspaper article implies that the $326 savings is a net savings after the cost of providing the replacement O-bus service (2) which is clearly not the case since the costs of providing the
O-buses were charged to the capital budget.
The reason for my concern stems from the oft-repeated $100 million in operating savings due to the 12.5 km LRT line (Blair to Tunney's) that the City is using to justify the cost of the DOTT project and questions that may arise regarding the cost-efficiency of LRT when compared to buses when the City is reported as saying that shutting down the O-Train saves money when people know that the O-bus service replaced the O-Train service during the
shut down period. As reported, it makes the optics look bad for LRT when instead, the City could have used this shut down to identify the cost-benefit of rail vs bus, even on the 8 km (vs 12.5 km LRT) O-Train line "that currently has 10,200 riders per day, well in excess of the 5,800-7,300 originally forecast."(3)
Many thanks for considering my request.
Klaus Beltzner
ref:
Here are the referenced documents:
(1) 2010 OPERATING AND CAPITAL BUDGET Q2 -- TRANSIT COMMITTEE STATUS REPORT
(ACS2010-CMR-FIN-0059)
"The O-Train operation will be favourable $326K at year end, partially due to diesel price savings and the 5 week shutdown for maintenance. Costs incurred for additional bus service during the shut-down are included as part of the capital project costs and are not reflected in the operations expenditure forecast."
----
(2) Ottawa Citizen:
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Transpo+predicts+cash+shortfall/34...
*OC Transpo predicts $4.7M cash shortfall*
Fares, weather, gas prices explain result, report says
By Neco Cockburn, The Ottawa Citizen August 25, 2010
"The recent five-week maintenance shutdown of the O-Train is one of the
reasons for another expected $326,000 in savings, the report says. Deficits
are expected in the transit service operator and fuel budget, however."
(3) Fast Facts - Ottawa Light Rail: http://www.ottawalightrail.ca/en/
Cost of replacement O-Bus
They would need at least six artics to cover the 12 minute headway O-Bus peak schedule.
At $115 per hour for an artic (Is that close to the correct #, Mr. James?), you're talking a replacement
bus cost of $690 per hour, MORE than two trains at $330 per hour, each.
PLUS, the O-Buses were attracting less than HALF the ridership that the O-Train does, during the summer.
So, less than HALF the farebox revenue!
So, it's a COMPLETE FABRICATION to claim that they are SAVING money, by not running the O-Train!
$463320 saved by O-train shutdown?
Think of all the CA$H they have saved, by not running the O-Train for the last month and a half!
Lessee, here - $330 per hour, times 2 trains, times 18 hours per day, times 6.5 days per week, times 6 weeks equals
$ 463,320 (!)
Nearly half a million SMACKER$!
That's about 10% of the "savings" they claim below.
Of course, I have conveniently fogotten to deduct the cost of all those replacement buses that have been running, nearly empty, for the last six weeks!
:>)
Tim
p.s. Reading further, I see that they claim a $326,000 savings by not running the O-Train for FIVE weeks.
And, of course, THEY don't deduct the cost of those O-buses, either.